Who’s Afraid of a Big Bad Oil Shock?
نویسنده
چکیده
When the U.S. invaded Iraq in March 2003, many economists feared that the war would lead to a sharp decline in Iraqi oil production, a spike in oil prices, and a woeful economy that would follow the scripts of the oil shocks of 1973, 1978, and 1990. There was in fact a moderate decline in world oil production, and real oil prices increased from $20 in 2001:4 to $62 in 2006:3. But the ailments associated with earlier oil-price increases did not appear. Instead, output continued to grow rapidly, inflation was moderate, unemployment fell, consumers remained happy, and productivity grew at close to its postwar norm.1
منابع مشابه
Who’s Afraid of a Big Bad Oil Shock?
WHEN THE U.S. INVADED Iraq in March 2003, many economists feared that the war would lead to a sharp decline in Iraqi oil production, a spike in oil prices, and a woeful U.S. economy that would follow the scripts of the oil shocks of 1973, 1978, and 1990. Real oil prices did increase, indeed more than tripled, from $20 in 2001:Q4 to $62 in 2006:Q3 (in 2007 dollars). But the ailments associated w...
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